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Accounting for variability in conflict dynamics: A pattern-based predictive model.

Existing models for predicting conflict fatalities frequently produce conservative forecasts that gravitate towards the mean. While these approaches have a low average prediction error, they offer limited insights into temporal variations in conflict-related fatalities. Yet, accounting for variabili...

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Published in:Journal of Peace Research Vol. 62; no. 6; pp. 2052 - 2070
Main Authors: Schincariol, Thomas, Frank, Hannah, Chadefaux, Thomas
Format: Article
Published: Oxford University Press / USA Nov2025
Subjects:
Death rate
War
Heterogeneity
Prediction models
Pattern perception
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost

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