Behavioural Causal Inference.

When inferring causal effects from correlational data, a common practice by professional researchers but also lay people is to control for potential confounders. Inappropriate controls produce erroneous causal inferences. I model decision-makers (DMs) who use endogenous observational data to learn a...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Publicado en:Review of Economic Studies Vol. 93; no. 2; pp. 1323 - 1354
Autor principal: Spiegler, Ran
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Oxford University Press / USA Mar2026
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Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
Descripción
Sumario:When inferring causal effects from correlational data, a common practice by professional researchers but also lay people is to control for potential confounders. Inappropriate controls produce erroneous causal inferences. I model decision-makers (DMs) who use endogenous observational data to learn actions' causal effect on payoff-relevant outcomes. Different DM types use different controls. Their resulting choices affect the very correlations they learn from, thus calling for an equilibrium analysis of the steady-state welfare cost of bad controls. I obtain tight upper bounds on this cost. Equilibrium forces drastically reduce it when types' sets of controls contain one another.