Behavioural Causal Inference.

When inferring causal effects from correlational data, a common practice by professional researchers but also lay people is to control for potential confounders. Inappropriate controls produce erroneous causal inferences. I model decision-makers (DMs) who use endogenous observational data to learn a...

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Publicado en:Review of Economic Studies Vol. 93; no. 2; pp. 1323 - 1354
Autor principal: Spiegler, Ran
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Oxford University Press / USA Mar2026
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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      dt: Mar2026
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      pub: Oxford University Press / USA
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        10.1093/restud/rdaf050
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        atl: Behavioural Causal Inference.
      aug:
        au: Spiegler, Ran
        affil: Tel Aviv University, IsraelUniversity College London, UK
      su:
        Decision making
        Empirical research
        Causal inference
        Confounding variables
        Equilibrium
        Statistical association
      sug:
        subj:
          Decision making
          Empirical research
          Causal inference
          Confounding variables
          Equilibrium
          Statistical association
      keyword:
        Bad controls
        Bayesian networks
        copyrightHolder:Review of Economic Studies Ltd
        copyrightYear:2026
        inLanguage:en
        Misspecified models
        Non-rational expectations
        publisher:Oxford University Press
        sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaf050
        Worst-case analysis
        Bad controls
        Bayesian networks
        copyrightHolder:Review of Economic Studies Ltd
        copyrightYear:2026
        inLanguage:en
        Misspecified models
        Non-rational expectations
        publisher:Oxford University Press
        sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaf050
        Worst-case analysis
      ab: When inferring causal effects from correlational data, a common practice by professional researchers but also lay people is to control for potential confounders. Inappropriate controls produce erroneous causal inferences. I model decision-makers (DMs) who use endogenous observational data to learn actions' causal effect on payoff-relevant outcomes. Different DM types use different controls. Their resulting choices affect the very correlations they learn from, thus calling for an equilibrium analysis of the steady-state welfare cost of bad controls. I obtain tight upper bounds on this cost. Equilibrium forces drastically reduce it when types' sets of controls contain one another.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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