Behavioural Causal Inference.
When inferring causal effects from correlational data, a common practice by professional researchers but also lay people is to control for potential confounders. Inappropriate controls produce erroneous causal inferences. I model decision-makers (DMs) who use endogenous observational data to learn a...
| Publicado en: | Review of Economic Studies Vol. 93; no. 2; pp. 1323 - 1354 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Oxford University Press / USA
Mar2026
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=192334035&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 192334035 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00346527 REM jtl: Review of Economic Studies issn: 00346527 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Mar2026 vid: 93 iid: 2 pid: 622 pub: Oxford University Press / USA artinfo: ui: 192334035 10.1093/restud/rdaf050 ppf: 1323 ppct: 31 formats: tig: atl: Behavioural Causal Inference. aug: au: Spiegler, Ran affil: Tel Aviv University, IsraelUniversity College London, UK su: Decision making Empirical research Causal inference Confounding variables Equilibrium Statistical association sug: subj: Decision making Empirical research Causal inference Confounding variables Equilibrium Statistical association keyword: Bad controls Bayesian networks copyrightHolder:Review of Economic Studies Ltd copyrightYear:2026 inLanguage:en Misspecified models Non-rational expectations publisher:Oxford University Press sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaf050 Worst-case analysis Bad controls Bayesian networks copyrightHolder:Review of Economic Studies Ltd copyrightYear:2026 inLanguage:en Misspecified models Non-rational expectations publisher:Oxford University Press sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaf050 Worst-case analysis ab: When inferring causal effects from correlational data, a common practice by professional researchers but also lay people is to control for potential confounders. Inappropriate controls produce erroneous causal inferences. I model decision-makers (DMs) who use endogenous observational data to learn actions' causal effect on payoff-relevant outcomes. Different DM types use different controls. Their resulting choices affect the very correlations they learn from, thus calling for an equilibrium analysis of the steady-state welfare cost of bad controls. I obtain tight upper bounds on this cost. Equilibrium forces drastically reduce it when types' sets of controls contain one another. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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