RUSSIA IN THE MIDDLE EAST SINCE THE FULL-SCALE INVASION OF UKRAINE: DOWN BUT NOT OUT.

This article traces the evolution of Russia's policy in the Middle East since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It argues that, though the region has become more important for Russia economically and politically, the Kremlin's ability to project military power into the Middle East has erod...

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Publicado en:Demokratizatsiya Vol. 34; no. 1; pp. 87 - 103
Autor principal: NOTTE, HANNA
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Elliott School of International Affairs Winter2026
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Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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      aug:
        au: NOTTE, HANNA
        affil: JAMES MARTIN CENTER FOR NONPROLIFERATION STUDIES
      su:
        Middle East
        Ukraine
        Russia
        Syria
        Kremlin (Moscow, Russia)
        Assad, Bashar, 1965-
        Ideology
        Geopolitics
        Russian invasion of Ukraine, 2022-
        Israel-Hamas War, 2023-
        Russia-United States relations
        Russian armed forces
        Fall of the Assad Regime, Syria, 2024
        Iran-Israel War, 2025
      sug:
        subj:
          Ideology
          Geopolitics
          Middle East
          Ukraine
          Russia
          Syria
          Kremlin (Moscow, Russia)
          Russian invasion of Ukraine, 2022-
          Israel-Hamas War, 2023-
          Russia-United States relations
          Russian armed forces
          Fall of the Assad Regime, Syria, 2024
          Iran-Israel War, 2025
          Assad, Bashar, 1965-
      ab: This article traces the evolution of Russia's policy in the Middle East since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It argues that, though the region has become more important for Russia economically and politically, the Kremlin's ability to project military power into the Middle East has eroded. The article characterizes Russia's evolving, post-invasion policy as generally risk-averse, yet marked by a calibrated anti-Western and anti-Israeli tilt that has ebbed and flowed over time. Addressing the importance of Hamas's attack on Israel in October 2023, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024, and the "Twelve-Day War" in June 2025 as inflection points, it concludes that Russia's regional position has weakened relative to the peak of Russian power projection a decade ago. Still, regional states continue to see utility in engaging with Russia for various economic, political, and security reasons. Receptiveness to Russia has also been sustained by perceptions of the origins and nature of the Ukraine war, as well as of Western hypocrisy and unreliability, including in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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