| Sumario: | This article examines whether China's expanding presence constitutes control over the Panama Canal—an allegation made by United States President Donald Trump in 2025 and publicly denied by both Panama and China. The article's hypothesis is that China's activities in Panama constitute a soft offshore balancing strategy to constrain US regional dominance through non-military instruments. Despite recent scaling back in Panama, China's influence networks remain structurally embedded. The case of Panama illustrates how soft offshore balancing enables great powers to shape regional alignments through long-term, non-military strategies.
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