Soft offshore balancing at the canal: China's strategic influence in Panama.

This article examines whether China's expanding presence constitutes control over the Panama Canal—an allegation made by United States President Donald Trump in 2025 and publicly denied by both Panama and China. The article's hypothesis is that China's activities in Panama constitute a soft offshore...

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Published in:International Affairs Vol. 102; no. 4; pp. 1373 - 1393
Main Author: Dykmann, Klaas
Format: Article
Published: Oxford University Press / USA Jul2026
Subjects:
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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        au: Dykmann, Klaas
        affil: Department of Social Sciences and Business, Roskilde Universitet, Universitetsvej, 14.2, Roskilde 4000, Denmark
      su:
        China
        United States
        Panama
        Regionalism (International organization)
        Power (Social sciences)
        Balance of power
        Panama Canal (Panama)
        Canals
        Countries
        China-United States relations
        Great powers (International relations)
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          Regionalism (International organization)
          Power (Social sciences)
          Balance of power
          China
          United States
          Panama
          Other Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction
          Panama Canal (Panama)
          Canals
          Countries
          China-United States relations
          Great powers (International relations)
      keyword:
        copyrightHolder:The Royal Institute of International Affairs
        copyrightYear:2026
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        publisher:Oxford University Press
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        soft offshore balancing
        copyrightHolder:The Royal Institute of International Affairs
        copyrightYear:2026
        inLanguage:en
        publisher:Oxford University Press
        sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiag057
        soft offshore balancing
      ab: This article examines whether China's expanding presence constitutes control over the Panama Canal—an allegation made by United States President Donald Trump in 2025 and publicly denied by both Panama and China. The article's hypothesis is that China's activities in Panama constitute a soft offshore balancing strategy to constrain US regional dominance through non-military instruments. Despite recent scaling back in Panama, China's influence networks remain structurally embedded. The case of Panama illustrates how soft offshore balancing enables great powers to shape regional alignments through long-term, non-military strategies.
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    language: English
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