The impact of aggregate fluctuations across the UK income distribution.

In this article, we examine the response of earnings and employment to fluctuations in aggregate economic activity (GDP) across the income distribution. Using data from the UK's Labour Force Survey, we present evidence that aggregate fluctuations have economically significant but heterogeneous impac...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Publicado en:Oxford Economic Papers Vol. 78; no. 3; pp. 687 - 712
Autores principales: Key, Tomas, Lenney, Jamie
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Oxford University Press / USA Jul2026
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
Descripción
Sumario:In this article, we examine the response of earnings and employment to fluctuations in aggregate economic activity (GDP) across the income distribution. Using data from the UK's Labour Force Survey, we present evidence that aggregate fluctuations have economically significant but heterogeneous impacts across the income distribution. While the earnings response is broadly similar across the distribution, further decompositions reveal important differences in the channels of transmission. Changes to hours worked and employment better explain the earnings response in the bottom half of the distribution, whereas changes to the hourly wage are more important in the top half. We incorporate these empirical estimates into the calibration of a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model for the UK and find that the heterogeneity we document amplifies the consumption response to aggregate shocks by around 10 per cent.