The impact of aggregate fluctuations across the UK income distribution.

In this article, we examine the response of earnings and employment to fluctuations in aggregate economic activity (GDP) across the income distribution. Using data from the UK's Labour Force Survey, we present evidence that aggregate fluctuations have economically significant but heterogeneous impac...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Oxford Economic Papers Vol. 78; no. 3; pp. 687 - 712
Main Authors: Key, Tomas, Lenney, Jamie
Format: Article
Published: Oxford University Press / USA Jul2026
Subjects:
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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        atl: The impact of aggregate fluctuations across the UK income distribution.
      aug:
        au:
          Key, Tomas
          Lenney, Jamie
        affil: Bank of England, Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8AH, United Kingdom
      su:
        United Kingdom
        Income distribution
        Employment
        Consumption (Economics)
        Business cycles
        Household surveys
        Macroeconomic models
        Wage theory
        Gross domestic product
      sug:
        subj:
          Income distribution
          Employment
          Consumption (Economics)
          Business cycles
          Household surveys
          United Kingdom
          Macroeconomic models
          Wage theory
          Gross domestic product
      keyword:
        business cycles
        copyrightHolder:Oxford University Press
        copyrightYear:2026
        E32
        GDP betas
        HANK
        income distribution
        inLanguage:en
        J31
        J60
        publisher:Oxford University Press
        sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpag012
        unemployment
        business cycles
        copyrightHolder:Oxford University Press
        copyrightYear:2026
        E32
        GDP betas
        HANK
        income distribution
        inLanguage:en
        J31
        J60
        publisher:Oxford University Press
        sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpag012
        unemployment
      ab: In this article, we examine the response of earnings and employment to fluctuations in aggregate economic activity (GDP) across the income distribution. Using data from the UK's Labour Force Survey, we present evidence that aggregate fluctuations have economically significant but heterogeneous impacts across the income distribution. While the earnings response is broadly similar across the distribution, further decompositions reveal important differences in the channels of transmission. Changes to hours worked and employment better explain the earnings response in the bottom half of the distribution, whereas changes to the hourly wage are more important in the top half. We incorporate these empirical estimates into the calibration of a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model for the UK and find that the heterogeneity we document amplifies the consumption response to aggregate shocks by around 10 per cent.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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