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The Inaccurate Conception.

The article discusses the use of estimates in system development. The author comments on the role of accuracy in estimates and describes the Cone of Uncertainty, a probability function created to estimate the time required in the development of software. Uncertainty can be classified as First Order...

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Published in:Communications of the ACM Vol. 51; no. 3; pp. 13 - 17
Main Author: Armour, Phillip G.
Format: Article
Published: Association for Computing Machinery Mar2008
Subjects:
Estimates
Uncertainty (Information theory)
Computer software development
Commitment (Psychology)
Mathematical variables
Probability theory
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
Summary:The article discusses the use of estimates in system development. The author comments on the role of accuracy in estimates and describes the Cone of Uncertainty, a probability function created to estimate the time required in the development of software. Uncertainty can be classified as First Order Ignorance (1OI) and Second Order Ignorance (2OI). A lack of information creates variables that make accurate estimation impossible. The author discusses the role of risk in estimates and suggests commitment to projects with a greater chance of success is more important than estimates.