The Inaccurate Conception.
The article discusses the use of estimates in system development. The author comments on the role of accuracy in estimates and describes the Cone of Uncertainty, a probability function created to estimate the time required in the development of software. Uncertainty can be classified as First Order...
| Publicado en: | Communications of the ACM Vol. 51; no. 3; pp. 13 - 17 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Association for Computing Machinery
Mar2008
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=31317833&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 31317833 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00010782 ACM jtl: Communications of the ACM issn: 00010782 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Mar2008 vid: 51 iid: 3 pid: 68 pub: Association for Computing Machinery artinfo: ui: 31317833 10.1145/1325555.1325558 ppf: 13 ppct: 4 formats: tig: atl: The Inaccurate Conception. aug: au: Armour, Phillip G. affil: Senior Consultant, Corvus International Inc., Deer Park, IL. su: Estimates Uncertainty (Information theory) Computer software development Commitment (Psychology) Mathematical variables Probability theory sug: subj: Estimates Uncertainty (Information theory) Computer software development Commitment (Psychology) Mathematical variables Probability theory ab: The article discusses the use of estimates in system development. The author comments on the role of accuracy in estimates and describes the Cone of Uncertainty, a probability function created to estimate the time required in the development of software. Uncertainty can be classified as First Order Ignorance (1OI) and Second Order Ignorance (2OI). A lack of information creates variables that make accurate estimation impossible. The author discusses the role of risk in estimates and suggests commitment to projects with a greater chance of success is more important than estimates. pubtype: Periodical doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y dt: @attributes: year: 2008 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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