Emerging technologies: what's ahead for 2001-2030.

The George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies has compiled a comprehensive forecast of future technologies. The forecast, which was launched at the beginning of the 1990s, has finished four iterations of its Delphi survey—in 1990, 1992, 1994, and 1996. It used various methods,...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Publicado en:Futurist Vol. 31; pp. 20 - 29
Autores principales: Halal, William E., Kull, Michael D., Leffmann, Ann
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: World Future Society November/December 1997
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
Descripción
Sumario:The George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies has compiled a comprehensive forecast of future technologies. The forecast, which was launched at the beginning of the 1990s, has finished four iterations of its Delphi survey—in 1990, 1992, 1994, and 1996. It used various methods, including environmental scanning, trend analysis, Delphi surveys, and scenario building, because using multiple methods rather than a single approach produces more robust, useful estimates. The writer presents the forecast's predictions for technological developments in the periods 2001–10, 2011–20, and 2021–30.