A sampling approach to biases in conditional probability judgments: beyond base rate neglect and statistical format.
Conditional probability judgments of rare events are often inflated. Early accounts assumed a general deficit in using statistical base rates. More recent approaches predict improvement when problems are presented in frequency format or refer to natural categories. The present theory focuses or samp...
| Publicado en: | Journal of Experimental Psychology. General Vol. 129; no. 3; pp. 399 - 419 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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American Psychological Association
September 2000
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=513011911&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 513011911 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00963445 EPG jtl: Journal of Experimental Psychology. General issn: 00963445 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: September 2000 vid: 129 iid: 3 pid: 34 pub: American Psychological Association artinfo: ui: 513011911 10.1037/0096-3445.129.3.399 ppf: 399 ppct: 20 formats: tig: atl: A sampling approach to biases in conditional probability judgments: beyond base rate neglect and statistical format. aug: au: Fiedler, Klaus Brinkmann, Babette Betsch, Tilmann su: Human information processing Judgment (Psychology) Probability theory Statistical sampling sug: subj: Human information processing Judgment (Psychology) Probability theory Statistical sampling ab: Conditional probability judgments of rare events are often inflated. Early accounts assumed a general deficit in using statistical base rates. More recent approaches predict improvement when problems are presented in frequency format or refer to natural categories. The present theory focuses or sampling processes. Experiment 1 showed that a seeming advantage of frequency over probability formats is due to a confounded factor, the need to mentally transform stimulus samples. An information search paradigm was used in Experiment 2. When sampling by the predictor, the probability to be estimated, p(criterion/predictor), was conserved in the samples and judgments were quite accurate. However, when sampling by the criterion, the low base-rate event was strongly overrepresented, accounting for the entire bias. Judgments were quite sensitive to the sampled data, but failed to take sampling constraints into account, as shown in Experiments 3 and 4. Reprinted by permission of the publisher. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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