Whose Probabilities? Predicting Climate Change with Ensembles of Models.
Today's most sophisticated simulation studies of future climate employ not just one climate model but a number of models. 1 explain why this "ensemble" approach has been adopted--namely, as a means of taking account of uncertainty--and why a comprehensive investigation of uncertainty remains elusive...
| Publicado en: | Philosophy of Science Vol. 77; no. 5; pp. 985 - 998 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Cambridge University Press
Dec2010
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| Sumario: | Today's most sophisticated simulation studies of future climate employ not just one climate model but a number of models. 1 explain why this "ensemble" approach has been adopted--namely, as a means of taking account of uncertainty--and why a comprehensive investigation of uncertainty remains elusive. 1 then defend a middle ground between two camps in an ongoing debate over the transformation of ensemble results into probabilistic predictions of climate change, highlighting requirements that I refer to as ownership, justification, and robustness. |
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