Whose Probabilities? Predicting Climate Change with Ensembles of Models.
Today's most sophisticated simulation studies of future climate employ not just one climate model but a number of models. 1 explain why this "ensemble" approach has been adopted--namely, as a means of taking account of uncertainty--and why a comprehensive investigation of uncertainty remains elusive...
| Publicado en: | Philosophy of Science Vol. 77; no. 5; pp. 985 - 998 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Cambridge University Press
Dec2010
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=59159617&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 59159617 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00318248 PSC jtl: Philosophy of Science issn: 00318248 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Dec2010 vid: 77 iid: 5 pid: 15979 pub: Cambridge University Press artinfo: ui: 59159617 10.1086/656815 ppf: 985 ppct: 13 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P size: 5.9MB tig: atl: Whose Probabilities? Predicting Climate Change with Ensembles of Models. aug: au: Parker, Wendy S. affil: Department of Philosophy, Ohio University, Ellis Hall 202, Athens, OH 45701 su: Simulation methods & models Climate change Probability theory Robust control Weather forecasting sug: subj: Simulation methods & models Climate change Probability theory Robust control Weather forecasting ab: Today's most sophisticated simulation studies of future climate employ not just one climate model but a number of models. 1 explain why this "ensemble" approach has been adopted--namely, as a means of taking account of uncertainty--and why a comprehensive investigation of uncertainty remains elusive. 1 then defend a middle ground between two camps in an ongoing debate over the transformation of ensemble results into probabilistic predictions of climate change, highlighting requirements that I refer to as ownership, justification, and robustness. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y custom: Copyright of Philosophy of Science is the property of Cambridge University Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. item: Philosophy of Science holder: Cambridge University Press dt: @attributes: year: 2010 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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