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Stochastic Population Forecasting Based on Combinations of Expert Evaluations Within the Bayesian Paradigm.

This article suggests a procedure to derive stochastic population forecasts adopting an expert-based approach. As in previous work by Billari et al. (), experts are required to provide evaluations, in the form of conditional and unconditional scenarios, on summary indicators of the demographic compo...

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Publicado en:Demography (Springer Nature) Vol. 51; no. 5; pp. 1933 - 1955
Autores principales: Billari, Francesco, Graziani, Rebecca, Melilli, Eugenio
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Springer Nature Oct2014
Materias:
Population forecasting
Stochastic analysis
Markov chain Monte Carlo
Demographic research
Bayesian analysis
Expertise
Mathematical models
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost