Stochastic Population Forecasting Based on Combinations of Expert Evaluations Within the Bayesian Paradigm.

This article suggests a procedure to derive stochastic population forecasts adopting an expert-based approach. As in previous work by Billari et al. (), experts are required to provide evaluations, in the form of conditional and unconditional scenarios, on summary indicators of the demographic compo...

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Bibliographic Details

Published in:	Demography (Springer Nature) Vol. 51; no. 5; pp. 1933 - 1955
Main Authors:	Billari, Francesco, Graziani, Rebecca, Melilli, Eugenio
Format:	Article
Published:	Springer Nature Oct2014
Subjects:	Population forecasting Stochastic analysis Markov chain Monte Carlo Demographic research Bayesian analysis Expertise Mathematical models
Online Access:	View this record in EBSCOhost