Anticipating the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: An Early Warning Approach to Conflict and Instability Analysis.

The macrostructural factors associated with the conditions that contribute to conflict and country instability at the nation-state level are identified and evaluated. The relationships among different combinations of country macrostructural variables and the likelihood that states will experience a...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Publicado en:	Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 46; no. 6; pp. 791 - 812
Autor principal:	O'Brien, Sean P.
Formato:	Artículo
Publicado:	Sage Publications Inc. December 2002
Materias:	Forecasting War Internal security Social statistics United States. Central Intelligence Agency. State Failure Task Force Political science Methodology
Acceso en línea:	Ver este registro en EBSCOhost

Descripción
Sumario:	The macrostructural factors associated with the conditions that contribute to conflict and country instability at the nation-state level are identified and evaluated. The relationships among different combinations of country macrostructural variables and the likelihood that states will experience a given intensity level of instability are analyzed using a pattern classification algorithm known as fuzzy analysis of statistical evidence (FASE). When FASE's predictive utility is assessed, findings demonstrate its strong potential to accurately forecast the level of intensity as well as the occurrence of country-specific instabilities.