Anticipating the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: An Early Warning Approach to Conflict and Instability Analysis.
The macrostructural factors associated with the conditions that contribute to conflict and country instability at the nation-state level are identified and evaluated. The relationships among different combinations of country macrostructural variables and the likelihood that states will experience a...
| Publicado en: | Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 46; no. 6; pp. 791 - 812 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Sage Publications Inc.
December 2002
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=507790447&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 507790447 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00220027 JCF jtl: Journal of Conflict Resolution issn: 00220027 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: December 2002 vid: 46 iid: 6 pid: 344 pub: Sage Publications Inc. artinfo: ui: 507790447 10.1177/002200202237929 ppf: 791 ppct: 21 formats: tig: atl: Anticipating the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: An Early Warning Approach to Conflict and Instability Analysis. aug: au: O'Brien, Sean P. su: Forecasting War Internal security Social statistics United States. Central Intelligence Agency. State Failure Task Force Political science Methodology sug: subj: Forecasting War Internal security Social statistics United States. Central Intelligence Agency. State Failure Task Force Political science Methodology ab: The macrostructural factors associated with the conditions that contribute to conflict and country instability at the nation-state level are identified and evaluated. The relationships among different combinations of country macrostructural variables and the likelihood that states will experience a given intensity level of instability are analyzed using a pattern classification algorithm known as fuzzy analysis of statistical evidence (FASE). When FASE's predictive utility is assessed, findings demonstrate its strong potential to accurately forecast the level of intensity as well as the occurrence of country-specific instabilities. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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